Will the USA be out of Iraq by 2009?

[ninjalooter1701]

Will the USA be out of Iraq by 2009?

[Anonymous Idiot Savant]

Toss up between #3 and #4, I went with #3 though.

Considering Bush will likely still be in power for 2007-2008, and Congress is still acting wimpy... I'm going to say it wont be untill the 2008 campaign season when we'll see enough serious talk of a pullout for it to become a reality sometime in 2009. So as of 1-1-09 I think we will still have a similar level of troops compaired to now, but be out sometime before mid 2009.

The Surge is basicly Bush's all in play. It has pushed us into the 11th hour politicaly speaking, and regardless of the outcome I can't see the Iraq War, as we have come to know it, lasting too much longer.

[ninjalooter1701]

We have, not surprisingly, direct voting down party lines.

[Tom Joad]

Originally Posted by ninjalooter1701

We have, not surprisingly, direct voting down party lines.

Doesn't surprise me at all. Those on the right continue to engage in wishfull and delusional thinking.

[sinterest]

Basically because of the right wing neo-con types i.e., stubborn and obsessed with Party over country, things will not change much and yes; it will be because the Dems are basically whimps and worry more about the "sound bites" and re-election themselves.

[ninjalooter1701]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...iraq_orbat.htm

Troop levels

Initial war plans for Iraq had an initial American invasion force of about 130,000 soldiers and Marines, which would drop quickly to as few as 30,000 to 50,000 by the end of 2003.

As of October 2005 80,000 of the Guard and Reserve forces were deployed in 40 nations. The largest portion was in Iraq, where Guard units accounted for eight of 15 Army combat brigades.

As of 01 March 2006 there were 133,000 US troops in Iraq, down from about 160,000 in December 2005 during parliamentary elections. The Pentagon cut Army combat brigades to 15 from 17. The 25th Infantry Division from Hawaii, along with seven other major military units are scheduled to deploy as part of the Summer 2006 troop rotation. The Pentagon hoped to reduce the US presence in Iraq to less than 100,000 by the end of 2006.

By March 2006 some 7,000 Schofield Barracks soldiers were preparing for deployment in August 2006. The soldiers deployed in April 2006 to the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, California. The 25th Infantry Division would command Multinational Division North-Central operations in northern Iraq, with four to five brigades, one of which will be the 3rd Brigade Combat Team from Hawaii. At that time, more than 1,000 Marines of the 3rd Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment, and Marine Heavy Helicopter Squadron 463 were already on their way to Iraq.

On 15 March 2006 it was reported that a battalion of about 700 soldiers from the 2nd Brigade, 1st Armored Division would deploy into Iraq from their base in Kuwait to provide extra security during the holiday of Ashura, which ended 20 March 20006. The unit is one of the three battalions that were originally were scheduled to deploy to Iraq but were held in Kuwait as a standby force. Nearly 4,100 soldiers in the 34th Brigade Combat Team left for Iraq in late March 2006. The soldiers were from Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska and New Jersey. The deployment included 2,600 from Minnesota's National Guard, the largest contingent from the state to see combat since World War II.

By June 2006 the US had 14 combat brigades in Iraq, and a total of 127,000 troops. According to a 25 June 2006 report in the New York Times, a draft plan calls for significant reductions in the American military presence in Iraq by the end of 2007. The initial drawdown would involve the First Brigade of the 10th Mountain Division and the Third Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division are scheduled to rotate out of Iraq in September 2006, and would not be replaced. By December 2006, the number of US combat brigades in Iraq could be as low as 10 to 12, seven to eight brigades by June 2007 and five or six brigades by December 2007. Combat brigades, which typically number about 3,500 troops, account for only a portion of 127,000 American troops in Iraq, and other support units would not draw down as quickly.

There were about 152,000 US troops in Iraq as of early October 2005. As of mid-November 2006, there were approximately 152,000 US troops deployed to Iraq.

On April 9, 2007, DoD announced the alert of four National Guard brigade combat teams as additional replacement units for deployment in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. There are approximately 13,000 personnel in these four brigades:

* 39th Infantry BCT, Little Rock, Ark.
* 45th Infantry Brigade, Oklahoma City, Okla.
* 76th Infantry BCT, Indianapolis, Ind.
* 37th Infantry BCT, Columbus, Ohio.

On April 2, 2007, the Department of Defense announced, additional major units scheduled to deploy in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom:

* XVIII Airborne Corps Headquarters
* 1st Armored Division Headquarters
* 4th Infantry Division Headquarters
* 1st Brigade, 10th Mountain Division
* Additionally, the 25th Infantry Division headquarters would have its tour extended by ~45 days.
* Other combat-support and combat-service-support units consisting of approximately 2,000 personnel were also been identified to deploy in support of operations in Iraq

On January 11, 2007, the Department of Defense announced, as part of President Bush's new strategy for Iraq, the following force adjustments which would result building the capacity available to commanders to 20 brigade or regimental combat teams:

* The 2nd BDE, 82nd Airborne Division, and assigned as the call forward force in Kuwait, will move into Iraq and assume a security mission there.
* The 1st BDE, 34th Infantry Division, Minnesota ARNG, will be extended in its mission for up to 125 days and will redeploy not later than August 2007.
* The 4th BDE, 1st Infantry Division, will deploy in February 2007 as previously announced.
* Three other Army combat brigades will deploy as follows:
o The 3rd BDE, 3rd Infantry Division, will deploy in March 2007.
o The 4th Stryker BDE, 2nd Infantry Division, will deploy in April 2007.
o The 2nd BDE, 3rd Infantry Division, will deploy in May 2007.
* The Marine Corps will extend two reinforced infantry battalions for approximately 60 days.
* The 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (Special Operations Capable) will remain in Iraq for approximately 45 additional days.
* Finally, the USS Stennis Carrier Strike Group and the 3rd Battalion, 43rd Air Defense Regiment will deploy to the region to bolster security.

OIF-6 Rotation

* November 17, 2006 announcement: 3rd Infantry Division Headquarters, Fort Stewart, Ga.
* 4th Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, Fort Riley, Ks.
* 4th Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division, Fort Lewis, Wa.
* 3rd Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, Fort Benning, Ga.
* 1st Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division, Fort Bragg, N.C
* 173rd Airborne Brigade, Vicenza, Italy

In addition, the Department of Defense also alerted approximately 27,000 active duty and 10,000 reserve component troops in combat support and combat service support units smaller than brigade-size elements for deployment beginning in 2007.
OIF-5 Rotation

The Department of Defense announced on three separate occasions that approximately 138,000 soldiers would rotate into Iraq during mid and late 2006. As part of the OIF-5 rotation, the Department of Defense announced (on the following dates) that the following major units would deploy to Iraq:

* July 27, 2006 announcement: 1st Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas
* 4th Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas
* Regimental Combat Team 2, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina
* Regimental Combat Team 6, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina
* 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division from Fort Stewart, Georgia has been placed in a prepare-to-deploy status for possible deployment later this year.
* The deployment of the 172nd Stryker Brigade Combat Team operating in Iraq was to be extended for up to 120 additional days. In August, 2006, the 172nd SBCT was moved into the Baghdad area.

* June 20, 2006 announcement: III Corps Headquarters, Fort Hood, Texas
* II Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Lejeune, N.C.
* 1st Cavalry Division Headquarters, Fort Hood, Texas
* 2nd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas
* 3rd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas
* 4th Brigade, 25th Infantry Division, Fort Richardson, Alaska
* 2nd Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division, Fort Carson, Colo.

* November 7, 2005 announcement: Division Headquarters, 25th Infantry Division, Schofield Barracks, Hawaii
* 13th Corps Support Command, Fort Hood, Texas
* 1st Brigade, 34th Infantry Division, Minnesota Army National Guard
* 2nd Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, Schweinfurt, Germany
* 3rd Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division, Fort Lewis, Wash
* 3rd Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division, Fort Bragg, N.C.
* 3rd Brigade, 25th Infantry Division, Schofield Barracks, Hawaii
* 2nd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division, Fort Drum, N.Y.
* The 1st Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, based at Fort Riley, Kan., previously notified to prepare to deploy in early December, has been advised it will not deploy prior to Dec. 31, 2005.

On September 25, 2006, the Department of Defense announced that it had delayed the redeployment of the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division, based in Friedberg, Germany, for approximately 46 days. The unit was scheduled to redeploy in mid-January 2007, and would as a result begin that redeployment in late February 2007. This decision was taken to allow the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division to complete its one year dwell time and then deploy in January 2007. Additionally, it was announced that the 4th Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division would deploy 30 days earlier than originally scheduled and begin its deployment in late October 2006.
OIF-4 Rotation

The Department of Defense announced on four separate occasions the units that would rotate into Iraq during mid and late 2005. As part of the OIF-4 rotation, the Department of Defense announced (on the following dates) that the following major units would deploy to Iraq:

* February 11, 2005 announcement: Headquarters, V Corps, Heidelberg, Germany

* January 18, 2005 announcement: 1st Brigade, 1st Armored Division, Wiesbaden, Germany
* 2nd Brigade, 1st Armored Division, Wiesbaden, Germany

* January 4, 2005 announcement: 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 28th Infantry Division, Pennsylvania Army National Guard

* December 14, 2004 announcement: 48th Infantry Brigade (Separate), Georgia Army National Guard
* 172d Stryker Brigade Combat Team, Ft. Wainwright, Alaska
* 1st Brigade, 10th Mountain Division, Ft. Drum, N.Y.
* 101st Airborne Division, Air Assault (division headquarters and 4 brigades), Ft. Campbell, Ky.
* 1st Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, Ft. Riley, Kan.
* 4th Infantry Division (division headquarters and 4 brigades), Ft. Hood, Texas

[ninjalooter1701]

Yes, the USA will be out of Iraq, the vast majority of the soldiers will have returned to the USA.
Black Lance, Justin, LiberalNation, VoltairesGhost2.0

How is this working out?

[sarmajor]

You have left a very credible option out of your choices

No the US will not be out of Iraq but will have considerably more troops there than in 2007.

You may recall how the numbers in Vietnam slowly esculated to some half a million.

It really all depends on whether/when the resting insurgents will have their Tet.

The US would probably like to leave but the tiger that they have by the tail may awake or other developments in the middle east may prevent them from leaving.

Could they stomach another Vietnam style defeat in less than 50 years?

Am I the only one herewho thinks that may be a possibility?

[Gilles de Rais]

Originally Posted by sarmajor

Could they stomach another Vietnam style defeat in less than 50 years?

I think that's a given, more or less. It's jut a question of "more or less" and how credibly they are at saving face when they declare victory on the way out...

[Gilles de Rais]

Originally Posted by ninjalooter1701

How is this working out?

By admitting defeat and saying "fuck those sand n*ggers, what are we doing here, let's get out of here and let the chips fall where they may"...

[Tom Joad]

Originally Posted by sarmajor

You have left a very credible option out of your choices

No the US will not be out of Iraq but will have considerably more troops there than in 2007.

You may recall how the numbers in Vietnam slowly esculated to some half a million.

It really all depends on whether/when the resting insurgents will have their Tet.

The US would probably like to leave but the tiger that they have by the tail may awake or other developments in the middle east may prevent them from leaving.

I doubt we'll see more troops. There is no draft now, and it would be political suicide to bring it back. The only other way to get that many of today's American kids to enlist would be to up the pay to something like $100,000/year for an E-1. I doubt China will lend us the money for that.

Originally Posted by sarmajor

Could they stomach another Vietnam style defeat in less than 50 years?

Am I the only one herewho thinks that may be a possibility?

Nope, there's me.

[parihaka]

I can't see ant reason for the US to withdraw troops to anything below the 80k mark in the foreseeable future.

[potter]

Originally Posted by Gilles de Rais

By admitting defeat and saying "fuck those sand n*ggers, what are we doing here, let's get out of here and let the chips fall where they may"...

Feeling a little racist today Gilles?

[Gilles de Rais]

Originally Posted by potter

Feeling a little racist today Gilles?

I was obviously mimicking the American decision makers, not expressing a personal opinion...

[Gilles de Rais]

Originally Posted by parihaka

I can't see ant reason for the US to withdraw troops to anything below the 80k mark in the foreseeable future.

Money? The fact that there is no point in staying there?

[parihaka]

Originally Posted by Gilles de Rais

Money? The fact that there is no point in staying there?

For the next 50 years at least, the middle east is the centre of the world. As guarantor of the access to oil, America's strategic interest in both it's own needs and as the fiat currency based on oil supply, it's essential it maintains a strong force to dominate the region. In other words, they can't afford not to be there in strength.

[sarmajor]

Originally Posted by parihaka

For the next 50 years at least, the middle east is the centre of the world. As guarantor of the access to oil, America's strategic interest in both it's own needs and as the fiat currency based on oil supply, it's essential it maintains a strong force to dominate the region. In other words, they can't afford not to be there in strength.

I fully agree Parihaka

The US problem is that they are in a lose/lose situation .......... they cannot afford to stay and they equally cannot afford to leave.

Many here have known that since day one.

The unknown factor is how many troops will be needed .......... and that is something outside their control.

Although restoring the draft may be political suicide - to not supply the troops needed may be economical suicide ......... if the US loses access to middle east oil.

What do you think would happen if the Sunnis and Shia's decide that it is in their interests to unite to kick out the infidel (and settle their arguments later) or if Iran decides that it has had enough and sends a few hundred thousand men across the border ............... or the long suffering Saudi Arabian populance rebells against their corrupt ruling class ............. or if ......................(I think that you may get my point)

[parihaka]

Originally Posted by sarmajor

I fully agree Parihaka

The US problem is that they are in a lose/lose situation .......... they cannot afford to stay and they equally cannot afford to leave.

Many here have known that since day one.

The unknown factor is how many troops will be needed .......... and that is something outside their control.

Although restoring the draft may be political suicide - to not supply the troops needed may be economical suicide ......... if the US loses access to middle east oil.

What do you think would happen if the Sunnis and Shia's decide that it is in their interests to unite to kick out the infidel (and settle their arguments later) or if Iran decides that it has had enough and sends a few hundred thousand men across the border ............... or the long suffering Saudi Arabian populance rebells against their corrupt ruling class ............. or if ......................(I think that you may get my point)

Strategically I don't agree it's a loose loose, they simply have no choice.
Ignoring the morality arguments etc, it simply is in their strategic interest to maintain a standing army in the middle east.
It's been interesting to watch the interplay between Admiral Fallon (CENTCOM) and General Petreaus (Iraq). Fallon thinks Petreaus is an asswipe for keeping the Army tied up in Iraq. He doesn't give a monkeys arse if shiite kills sunni and if Iran stirs the pot as much as they like, nor if the house of Saud falls, as long as the oil flows to the rest of the world. That is his primary mission, everything else is a distant second.
Fallon believes that the army finished its role the day after Saddam was overthrown, and that everything that has happened post that day is a waste of US resources. He wants what is the answer to your what ifs: a large and stable base within Kurdistan, ready to deploy anywhere within the middle east at a moments notice, and a constant threat to Iran without the encumbrance of the surge.

[potter]