Brits who are you going to vote for next time?

[Zan de Man]

Originally Posted by Neko

BD has a point here - in first past the post whole swathes of votes are wasted anyway, so most of the time if you don't agree with the dominant party locally you might as well just use yours to make a statement and hope something comes of it.

Yes, but you don't do that because you admire their manifesto. It's enough that
it isn't offensive.

[frozen]

It's a very tough question that I've been musing over for a while.

Nu Labour are dead in the water, and despite the Tories ably demonstrating how to become complacent and piss everyone off, Labour have managed to copy this as well as several more of their unpopular policies. Despite thrashing around over the last 2 years, looking for new ideas so they can patronisingly make 'new announcements' (I hate that expression when politicians use it), they still aren't thinking innovatively enough, or aware enough of the public mood to slay money-wasting projects like ID cards and HIPs. Until they start being honest, and demonstrate their willingness to represent the will of the people who elected them, even if 'the party' doesn't necessarily agree with the masses, they are doomed.

As for the Tories, I've long thought they wheeled out Cameron just as the guy he was designed to fight quit as PM. He's a snappy, quick-thinking leader who was fun to watch against Blair, but looks like a smart arse against the duller Brown. But while the Tories are smarter, and have seized on unpopular policies like ID cards, apart from opportunely out-thinking the government on exisiting issues, I'm not aware of anything new they're proposing. New is important right now, because the electorate are fed-up with the same old parties, who seem to do little more than promise in Opposition, and renege in office. And while Labour have pretty much had it, it doesn't necessarily follow that the Tories will inherit their lost ground this time around, as both sides have now proven to be equally dismissive of the electorate. The Tories will almost certainly get in next, but there will be a low turn out, which might benefit...

The Lib Dems, whose best hope is to claim some ground from the 2 main parties, but it will still fail to get them anywhere even close to power, with the exception of a coalition offer. That's not as crazy as it sounds though, and might help them gain headway with some of their more radical ideas.

So in answer to the original question:

I'll definitely not be voting Labour. I might vote Tory if they make a proper effort to win my vote, otherwise I won't vote, as the Liberals aren't anywhere close to feasible on their own. I still think there's a huge opportunity for a new party, but whether they'll ever be able to gain more than the fringe vote is another thing - it's all about money nowadays, and what's good for the planet isn't necessarily good for profit.

[Neko]

Not to pry, but what's the situation in your constituency?

[frozen]

Originally Posted by Neko

Not to pry, but what's the situation in your constituency?

Interesting you ask, because I had to look it up. I thought we had a Tory MP, but it turns out he's Labour. I'm not sure who's the majority in Swindon Council either, and am not sure how to find out, but whoever it is, they do a reasonable job with a sticky wicket (Swindon).

The reason I'm a bit in the dark about local politics is I don't care who leads the local council, provided they do a good job, and whoever it is, does. I'm not sure whether many people do the same, but I disassociate central government from Swindon Borough Council, and almost perceive the latter as apolitical.

[Neko]

Cheers. Here's the breakdown, FWIW:


Swindon North
LABOUR HOLD - Michael Wills


The 2005 general election VotesShare
%Michael Wills, Labour19,61243.7Justin Tomlinson, Conservative17,04138.0Mike Evemy, Liberal Democrat6,83115.2Robin Tingey, UK Independence Party9982.2Andy Newman, Socialist Unity Network2080.5Ernest Reynolds, Independent1950.4Labour majority: 2,571
Time of declaration: May 06 2005 02:36
Turnout: 61.0 %

2571's not a disaster by any means, especially when you take the siez of the constituency into account, but In 2001 his majority was 8105, and given the general swing away from Labour I guess a Tory win next time is possible, but then it also looks like you've got a reasonable Lib Dem turnout, which could split the anti-Labour vote. I don't know the town very well, so I don't really know the current strengths of each party, but if I were going down to Swindon Ladbrookes today I'd have a tenner on the Tories, but I wouldn't risk any more than that.

This is my old constiuency:


The 2005 general election VotesShare
%Shona McIsaac, Labour18,88943.3Martin Vickers, Conservative16,24737.3Geoff Lowis, Liberal Democrat6,43714.8Bill Hardie, UK Independence Party2,0164.6Labour majority: 2,642
Time of declaration: May 06 2005 01:56
Turnout: 61.6 %

Her majority was down from 5620, but I reckon she'll manage to retain it, because beyond the dyed-in-the-wool Tories, very few people'll be able to bring themselves to vote Conservative, and they'll go with the Lib Dems instead.

[CookieD18]

Ive got a Labour MP and Tory council. To be honest it needs to be the other way around in my eyes. Dudley Council need more money and Id like NuLab to be out next election.

As I said beyond that I would support a small party and join as a member - but first we need to remove the current lot.

[frozen]

Originally Posted by Neko

Cheers. Here's the breakdown, FWIW:


Swindon North
LABOUR HOLD - Michael Wills


The 2005 general election VotesShare
%Michael Wills, Labour19,61243.7Justin Tomlinson, Conservative17,04138.0Mike Evemy, Liberal Democrat6,83115.2Robin Tingey, UK Independence Party9982.2Andy Newman, Socialist Unity Network2080.5Ernest Reynolds, Independent1950.4Labour majority: 2,571
Time of declaration: May 06 2005 02:36
Turnout: 61.0 %

2571's not a disaster by any means, especially when you take the siez of the constituency into account, but In 2001 his majority was 8105, and given the general swing away from Labour I guess a Tory win next time is possible, but then it also looks like you've got a reasonable Lib Dem turnout, which could split the anti-Labour vote. I don't know the town very well, so I don't really know the current strengths of each party, but if I were going down to Swindon Ladbrookes today I'd have a tenner on the Tories, but I wouldn't risk any more than that.

This is my old constiuency:


The 2005 general election VotesShare
%Shona McIsaac, Labour18,88943.3Martin Vickers, Conservative16,24737.3Geoff Lowis, Liberal Democrat6,43714.8Bill Hardie, UK Independence Party2,0164.6Labour majority: 2,642
Time of declaration: May 06 2005 01:56
Turnout: 61.6 %

Her majority was down from 5620, but I reckon she'll manage to retain it, because beyond the dyed-in-the-wool Tories, very few people'll be able to bring themselves to vote Conservative, and they'll go with the Lib Dems instead.

Thanks Neko. I think Swindon will remain marginal for a while. The town itself is reasonably working class - they'll certainly not flock to the Tories unless free lager is on the manifesto - while the surrounding villages are undoubtedly blue territory. The only way the LiBDems will make any ground is by coming up with something convincingly novel, but nobody really thinks their credible.

[Scrivy101]

The Conservatives only ever comment on how bad Labour are. They havent proved that they could do any better. In fact they prved they can do a lot worse in the 90s, so why have them back??

[CookieD18]

To get Labour out. Force Labour to rethink. Mandelson is back, already he wants to privatise the post offices, and stop a social legislation that will help with work hours or something like that. He hasnt been back a week and already the Neo-Con-ism is back.

[007]

Who to vote for?I dont know at all,tories and labour are the same,libs want to legalise pederasty,ukip are on the eu payroll, snp but im not scottish,bnp but im not racist,socialist workers but i dont want to be massacred by totalitarian loonies,i do not know at all.Perhaps if the BNP dropped their racism i may think again but however maybee not!I know i just wont vote,what is the point it is going to be Nu Lab under Brown or NUNULab under camera on!!!!!

[CookieD18]

You seem to think all Socialists are Marxists and authoritarian....what about liberal socialists? Those who want business working for the people as well as profit? I.e. not state ownerships.

Left does not mean communist. There is a whole spectrum of left and right - not just the extremes. I personally am left of centre.

[CookieD18]

Also, wtf is pederasty?

[Bonniedundee]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You seem to think all Socialists are Marxists and authoritarian....what about liberal socialists? Those who want business working for the people as well as profit? I.e. not state ownerships.

I've never heard of liberal socialists, except I think Gilles may have called himself one. I've heard of libertarian socialists, been one. What kind of people and parties represent this tendency? Or do you just mean social democrats?

[Gilles de Rais]

Originally Posted by Bonniedundee

I've never heard of liberal socialists, except I think Gilles may have called himself one. I've heard of libertarian socialists, been one. What kind of people and parties represent this tendency? Or do you just mean social democrats?

I am not sure the term is scientific.

It was used by a French socialist. Asked if he was a liberal and a socialist (or somesuch) he replied "Yes, i absolutely believe that you have to be both".

Another person that would probably recognise the label is Adler Turner of "Just Capital, the liberal economy". Amazon's description: "Ground-breaking, challenging and at times provocative, Adair Turners Just Capital addresses a vital question: how do we combine economic dynamism with social inclusion and environmental responsibility? The answer lies in embracing the power of market economics without accepting the simple dogmas of extreme free-market and conservative philosophy. Turners approach combines rigorous economic analysis with a clear vision of an attractive social philosophy, a philosophy that rejects twentieth-century socialism as much as conservative laissez-faire. Just Capital both provokes debate and offers radical new solutions to questions that have perplexed both left and right for decades.

So you could say it is just social democracy, a label I would also be OK with, but, imo, there is something a bit fresher, a willingness to try new solutions to old problems. For example, the classic left (incl. the social democrats) have often been accused of creating a "nanny state".

Conservatives and/or ultra-liberals have often simply wanted to dismantle that nanny state, without regards to consequences.

A third solution, partly inspired by Libertarians, iirc, has be dubbed the 'avuncular state'. It's the idea that there indeed are personal choices that are better for society than some others but the way forward isn't to forbid 'bad' or sub-optimal choices but charge you for them accordingly. You can still choose them but you pay for the consequences... This is both freedom of choice AND fairness rolled in one. I like it. And i call it liberal socialism.

Parties of various stripes are coming around it. The left is maybe a tiny bit faster in the present crisis because they were the ones most bereft of an ideology after the death of socialism/communism and socialism/keynesianism. But the right is catching up fast.

It seems Sarkozy just put out a law lifted straight out of "Just Capital" and the left was slightly dumfounded. Some socialist bigwigs were forced to say something like "it's a good socialist measure". The idea was to supplement low income with state subsidies so that the companies could find it profitable to employ people otherwise made too expensive by minimum salary and payroll taxes...

[Bonniedundee]

Interesting. Not in many ways my cup of tea although I have diverse palette. There are radical liberals like Alinsky that I admire.

The left is maybe a tiny bit faster in the present crisis because they were the ones most bereft of an ideology after the death of socialism/communism and socialism/keynesianism

My anarchists/left communist friends will be disappointed to here that. They're always telling me they are greatly gaining in popularity.

[Bonniedundee]

The answer lies in embracing the power of market economics without accepting the simple dogmas of extreme free-market and conservative philosophy.

Interesting that we live in a world where free market capitalism and conservatism are considered much the same.

Then again Maggie Thatcher, the woman who said there is no such thing as society is also considered a conservative!

[Gilles de Rais]

Originally Posted by Bonniedundee

Interesting. Not in many ways my cup of tea...

I would imagine. It probably doesn't do anything for you and your ideas, although some of them (like the resurgence of mutualistic companies/cooperatives) can easily be integrated.

... although I have diverse palette. There are radical liberals like Alinsky that I admire.

Read the Wiki article on him. Very different from what i am talking about, despite the 'liberal' title.

My anarchists/left communist friends will be disappointed to here that. They're always telling me they are greatly gaining in popularity.

I think that, as long as people remember Stalinism and the collapse of the Soviet Union (as well as the dreadful poverty in ex-communist countries), they are going to have a hard time going mainstream again, like in the 50s. Similarly, the fact that quite a few people now own something, a home, a flat, even a car, will be a natural break on their rise to political significance.

I am concerned about the lack of wage growth in the recent decade. Fuck, i lost jobs and i have needed hand-outs. This present crisis doesn't bode well for my professional future. But hell. I have a (small) flat (well, a 1/3 mortgaged one). My parents have a house, in full. I don't want anyone simply confiscating whatever little i have. Many people will feel the same way. Tax the rich? Sure. Collectivise everything? Erm, no thanks.

[Bonniedundee]

I would imagine. It probably doesn't do anything for you and your ideas, although some of them (like the resurgence of mutualistic companies/cooperatives) can easily be integrated.

Indeed the ideas of some of the "market socialists" are very appealing if applied in the correct, decentralised fashion. The idea of taxing capital gains and using it to fund collective banks to fund co-ops is something quite intetresting, if done locally of course.

I think that, as long as people remember Stalinism and the collapse of the Soviet Union (as well as the dreadful poverty in ex-communist countries), they are going to have a hard time going mainstream again, like in the 50s. Similarly, the fact that quite a few people now own something, a home, a flat, even a car, will be a natural break on their rise to political significance.

It is strange, left-communists and Anarchists have very little to do with the USSR and were great critics.

I am concerned about the lack of wage growth in the recent decade. Fuck, i lost jobs and i have needed hand-outs. This present crisis doesn't bode well for my professional future. But hell. I have a (small) flat (well, a 1/3 mortgaged one). My parents have a house, in full. I don't want anyone simply confiscating whatever little i have. Many people will feel the same way. Tax the rich? Sure. Collectivise everything? Erm, no thanks.

Most anarchists would leave you your house I believe.

My advise for riding out the crisis is homestead. Although that is my dream anyw