Will McCain/Palin Bounce back?

[Tom Joad]

As of today, Gallup has Obama up by six, Rassmussen by five.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html

These are the two I go by because they are a three day moving average and come out every day.

From this it appears that Obama got a slight bounce from the convention as before the convention both polls were running close to even.

I'd say by this time next week the full impact of the Palin pick and the RNC will be reflected in the same polls.

[Justin]

Will they bounce back? Yes. I'd say this time next week McCain/Palin will be up by three or four, which translates into an eight to nine point bounce...it could be bigger if Palin or McCain is able to deliver a knock-out speech...but I wouldn't bet on it with McCain's poor public speaking skills.

[Tom Joad]

Originally Posted by Justin

Will they bounce back? Yes. I'd say this time next week McCain/Palin will be up by three or four,

You're on. I'll say Obama by three on Sep. 10th. Same two polls. Loser has to pour a warm beer over his head.

[Underhill]

I say it will be a dead heat within the margin of error.

McCain will get a bump but I can't see 9 points.

[potter]

Have ya ever tried to make a meatball bounce?

[Mouth Full of Teeth]

Originally Posted by Underhill

I say it will be a dead heat within the margin of error.

McCain will get a bump but I can't see 9 points.

I'm going to be even less of a bump. Obama up by 2-3. Palin is taking the steam out of the RNC.

[R Lance]

McCain just got my support,. I've nowcontributed to his campaign, and I wasn't going to before

While i would have preferred Romney, Palin was my second choice, and is a real breath of fresh air..

[Dave]

It is looking like a very wise move on McCain's part in getting Palin in as his running mate. Isn't her speech to the conference tonight?

[Justin]

It is...expect big ratings.

[Mouth Full of Teeth]

Originally Posted by Dave

It is looking like a very wise move on McCain's part in getting Palin in as his running mate. Isn't her speech to the conference tonight?

Interesting that you think so... Not even the GOP seems to agree...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/0..._n_123647.html

Peggy Noonan, Mike Murphy Caught On Tape Disparaging Palin Choice: "It's Over," "Political Bullshit," "Gimmicky"
(see link for video)

Wall Street Journal columnist and former Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan and former John McCain adviser, Time columnist, and MSNBC contributor Mike Murphy were caught on tape disparaging John McCain's selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate.

"It's over," Noonan said.

When Chuck Todd asked her if this was the most qualified woman the Republicans could nominate, Noonan responded, "The most qualified? No. I think they went for this, excuse me, political bullshit about narratives. Every time the Republicans do that, because that's not where they live and that's not what they're good at, they blow it."

Murphy characterized the choices as "cynical" and "gimmicky."

=====

Chuck Todd: Mike Murphy, lots of free advice, we'll see if Steve Schmidt and the boys were watching. We'll find out on your blackberry. Tonight voters will get their chance to hear from Sarah Palin and she will get the chance to show voters she's the right woman for the job Up next, one man who's already convinced and he'll us why Gov. Jon Huntsman. (cut away)

Peggy Noonan: Yeah.

Mike Murphy: You know, because I come out of the blue swing state governor world: Engler, Whitman, Tommy Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush. I mean, these guys -- this is how you win a Texas race, just run it up. And it's not gonna work. And -

PN: It's over.

MM: Still McCain can give a version of the Lieberman speech to do himself some good.

CT: I also think the Palin pick is insulting to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, too.

PN: Saw Kay this morning.

CT: Yeah, she's never looked comfortable about this --

MM: They're all bummed out.

CT: Yeah, I mean is she really the most qualified woman they could have turned to?

PN: The most qualified? No! I think they went for this -- excuse me-- political bullshit about narratives --

CT: Yeah they went to a narrative.

MM: I totally agree.

PN: Every time the Republicans do that, because that's not where they live and it's not what they're good at, they blow it.

MM: You know what's really the worst thing about it? The greatness of McCain is no cynicism, and this is cynical.

CT: This is cynical, and as you called it, gimmicky.

MM: Yeah.

[Mouth Full of Teeth]

Originally Posted by Justin

It is...expect big ratings.

Everyone likes to watch a train wreck...

[Tom Joad]

Originally Posted by Justin

It is...expect big ratings.

Your going to look awful funny pouring that warm beer over your head.

[clownboy]

Let's see. They hold a convention to put their party platform before the American people, so what do they do?

1) they ignore platform altogether and concentrate on two PERSONALITIES at the top of the ticket, orphaning the down ticket entirely.
2) a quarter of their sitting Senators myteriously have somewhere else to be.
3) the sitting President, from their own party, doesn't show up, sends a video instead.
4) booked the smallest convention center of any of the major parties since these things were televised, and still can't fill it up (there's rumors of hiring seat fillers).
5) so desparate for keynote speakers they use the folks that two elections ago were smearing their current nominee.
6) have their most popular candidate (even though she's only #2 on the ticket) read a speech written by wonks for her, making it known they had to coach her for two days first to bring her up to speed.
7) Have her deliver her anticipated speech DURING the start of the new TV season. All the new shows are debutting on the west coast at the same time she's speaking.
8) Allow the message to wander. First speaker says the economy is just fine, next one says it's terrible, and on and on.

These aren't the tight mastermind republican campaigners and message shapers I remember.

[potter]

Then there is the sea of white.....fat white people. That's representing America alright.

It's like find Waldo.....

Try to find the 36 black delegates among the 2344 lily white delegates.....

I also found Laura and Cindies (in fact this comment was parroted word for word by several republicans...it's like they have a microchip) comments the first day interesting. Sometimes you have to take off the republican hat and done the "American" hat? So you're a republican most of the time, but an American only when it makes you look good?

We know who today's GOP is representing...and it isn't America or the American people.

[Tom Joad]

Originally Posted by potter

Then there is the sea of white.....fat white people. That's representing America alright.

It's like find Waldo.....

Try to find the 36 black delegates among the 2344 lily white delegates.....

Did you check the Superdome?

[potter]

Originally Posted by Tom Joad

Did you check the Superdome?

No, they closed the superdome to ensure that embarassment wouldn't happen again......

[Tom Joad]

Gallup has Obama up by 7
Rassmussen Obama up by 5

Almost all of the samples were taken before "Super Sarah's" Blockbuster speech which will surely replace Lincoln's Gettysburg address as the greatest American masterpiece of oratory ever made.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html

[Tom Joad]

Originally Posted by potter

No, they closed the superdome to ensure that embarassment wouldn't happen again......

Good thing they did. They couldn't have filled 10% of those seats with the white people at the RNC.

[Tom Joad]

Polls for Sep. 5 are out. These represent an average of Sep. 2,3, and 4. Showing a bit of a bounce for McCain/Palin.

Gallup= Obama +4 (down from +6)
Rassmussen = Obama +2 (down from +5)


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html

[Tom Joad]

9/6/08

Gallup = Obama +2
Rassmussen = Obama +3