Will Obama win the presidency?

[theAdviserMe]

Obama will be the first black president...if given the mandate by the American people. Though he is leading by a very slight and uncomfortable margins according to some polls...still a lot are voicing some concern whether he could be the right man for the job of reforming Washington after the tragic Bush years.

Anyway, this coming November we will hear the final verdict of the American people on this matter. Are you for Obama-Biden or McCain-Palin?

[Justin]

Neither...though if I had to choose, I would say I am now leaning ever so slightly towards McCain/Palin.

Still...neither candidate would be good for America, imho. I'm still planning on writing in Ron Paul or Pat Buchanan, or voting for Bob Barr.

Who do I think is going to win the election...I'd say, even though McCain has seen a bounce after the convention...it's still Obama's to lose. With the Palin pick, though, McCain made winning much more possible.

Before Obama's uninspired VP pick and McCain's brilliant one, I would have said Obama had about a 70% chance of winning. Now I'd put it between 54% and 58%.

[SCREAM]

That sounds about right.

[clownboy]

I believe it obvious who I'm voting for. I also think their are more than two tickets in the race. Even IF Paul and Barr aren't allowed in the debates, you know they'll hold their own. They ARE on the ballot and I believe, together, those that vote for them will have the Perot effect - and that will take from the republican base. My prediction, the story after the elections will be that the write-ins and third party, when taken together were a significant percentage this time.

This isn't 2004, or even 2000, no matter how much the RNC wants it to be. They need solid base PLUS. They simply cannot rely upon Independents this time as they're leaning the wrong way unlike the last elections. AND their base has significantly eroded. Though slightly brought back by the Palin pick, it's not enough to restore the party base to circa 200/2004 levels.

For the democrats the story is reversed. They have registered huge numbers in the last four years while the republicans were busy trying not to go to jail. Independents are leaning like they always do, but this time toward the dems.

Where I differ significantly from Justin is that I believe McCain would be a literal disaster for the presidency and the nation. Not balls out war maybe, but never-ending conflict and increasing corporate involvement in the military and the government. He has said himself that he doesn't "get" economics, and the folks he goes to for advice are lobbyists that got us in our current situation in the first place. He's already been part of a previous economic disaster that cost os $185 billion dollars, that's 1980/90s money.

Really, you have to listen to the guy off the campaign trail. They have some great stuff on C-Span. The other day they had a program where an "embedded" reporter followed him along on his book tour. From morning til evening. So amazingly scary. He told the reporter that getting up at 6 AM as they had that day was his earliest wakeup in 20 years. Says he needs at least 10 hours sleep a night or he gets "crabby". The whole thing was surreal. It was like he either forgot he was still running for president, or he figured nobody watches C-Span anyway. He had several senior moments during the day.

I don't get the, "I'll vote McCain now that he picked Palin" thing. The only justification for it I can see is that what those folks really want is Palin/McCain, and they're hoping the guy doesn't make it to January 20th. That's worse, because Palin is NO Lincoln, and doesn't have the chops to learn anything that quickly except to be a crook, or in control of crooks. She's adequately demonstrated that by now.

[Justin]

My prediction, the story after the elections will be that the write-ins and third party, when taken together were a significant percentage this time.

I disagree...I think McCain picking Palin went a long way to bringing back disaffected Republicans who would have voted for Barr or stayed home.

Ron Paul supporters aren't huge in number...and while I'm sure a lot of us will still write-in his name, it won't be a huge blip on the radar screen this November.

[clownboy]

Originally Posted by Justin

Ron Paul supporters aren't huge in number...and while I'm sure a lot of us will still write-in his name, it won't be a huge blip on the radar screen this November.

Isn't he on the ballot in Texas? His "rallys" still draw significant numbers. Now Virginia has been a red state, but it's leaning Obama right now. What's gonna happen with this - Bloomberg/Paul on Ballot in Virginia?, you don't suppose that'll take even more steam out of the republicans in that state? That's a game changer, if Virginia and two other states go blue, Florida can take it's time figuring out how to use a ballot, the game will be over.

[Justin]

My point is that what you saw in the primaries among Ron Paul supporters were probably half "die-hards" and probably half Republicans who were just tired of what the Republican party seems to have become. I believe...and I don't have anything to back this up but my gut...that the second half of Ron Paul supporters...and maybe even more...will vote McCain, especially with Palin for VP, because he is perceived to be the lesser of two evils.

You've made a good argument for why he is not...but on policy, there is no doubt that he is more conservative.

[clownboy]

Originally Posted by Justin

You've made a good argument for why he is not...but on policy, there is no doubt that he is more conservative.

Depends on what you consider conservative. That's something the last two elections have made me face. As I remember conservatism, though we were hawkish where it came to defense, we didn't want war, and especially didn't want to "police the world". We believed in constitutionally small government, regulation only where necessary, a strong national defense, peaceful alliance with the nations of the world, and above all else, a balanced budget. And until Ralph Reed, the words "conservative" and "evangelical" weren't synonymous.

Besides, how do you know he will even follow the policies he's told us about - he's a maverick, by definition we don't know what he'll do.

[Washington]

Surely a conservative is somebody who wants to conserve the status quo, which would explain why they have moved from a small government ideology to a big government ideology. When we had a small central government they wanted to preserve that, now we have a big one they want to preserve that.

[elalumno]

I think once again we are left with two mediocre candidates. In the long run though, I think most Americans will vote their pocketbook in November and the Democrats will take not only the WH but stronger and more commanding control in the House and Senate.

The question will then be will they abuse that and get spanked in the mid terms?

I would rather see the WH go to one party and the House and Senate go to the opposing party. i think the balance is critical to prevent stupid legislation by mob mentality.

[potter]

McCain will win. And he will do some cursory well publicised cutting of pork..just to make it look like he's doing something. ......then he will continue to increase the debt, and continue the corprorate takeover of the world's resources. The GOP won't stop until we're all enslaved in low paying jobs, and have our every move and word monitored 24/7.

[elalumno]

Plus don't forget potter, they are going to kill puppies too...

[suedanim]

Originally Posted by potter

McCain will win. And he will do some cursory well publicised cutting of pork..just to make it look like he's doing something. ......then he will continue to increase the debt, and continue the corprorate takeover of the world's resources. The GOP won't stop until we're all enslaved in low paying jobs, and have our every move and word monitored 24/7.

ack! Depressing scenario potter and though I fear you could be right, I hope you are not. Register everyone you know to vote Obama!

Me and mine will vote Obama-Biden. I loathe the thought of McCain-Palin... Change agents? What liars. This recent reinvention shouldnt be fooling people, but it is. I don't understand it.

If McCain goes in... look for more war and a sinking economy. I can't stand McCain and Palin is a FRAUD.

Libertarians? Get the hell outta town. All I see them doing is criticizing Democrats and cosigning to rightwing idealogy and corruption. Little to any condemnation of the right. So for all their hutzpah about both parties being foul... they are only rightwingers in libertarian clothing.