UPDATES:Alaska braces for possible volcanic eruption

[Fredfredson]

Alaska braces for possible volcanic eruption


By Yereth Rosen
39 minutes ago

LINK

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) - A restless volcano near Alaska's most populated region is being watched by scientist and officials, who warned on Thursday of the risk of clouds of ash and a tsunami from a possible eruption.

The intensifying rumblings in the past few weeks at Augustine Volcano, an island peak 175 miles southwest of Anchorage in Cook Inlet, have produced a series of steam explosions, releases of sulfur gas and signs that there may be an eruption similar to events in 1986 and 1976 which sent ash clouds as high as 40,000 feet, scientists said.

There has even been an increase of 1 inch at the top of the 4,134-foot (1,260-m) volcano, a sign that seismic activity is causing the summit to bulge slightly, said John Power, a seismologist with the Alaska Volcano Observatory, a joint office run by the U.S. Geological Survey and state agencies.

"All of these things are very typical of what you would expect to see in a volcano that is reawakening," Power said.

Although there are no specific signs that an eruption is imminent, flight restrictions are already in place and there are plans to expand those if activity increases at the volcano.

If Augustine does erupt, that could result in grounded flights, school closures and even evacuations, officials said. It is also possible that there will be a landslide from the volcano into the waters of Cook Inlet, causing a tsunami, they said.

Such an event occurred in 1883, when a wave believed to be 20 feet high hit the Native Alutiiq village of Nanwalek, 50 miles east of Augustine.

"Any time you have a volcano on the water that's erupting, common sense says you could have a flank collapse and a wave," said Paul Whitmore, director of the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center.

Anchorage is too far away to be at risk from an Augustine-related tsunami, Whitmore added.

But preparations for the possibility are well under way in Nanwalek, said Sergie Active, rector of the local Russian Orthodox church in the village of 200 people.

"We would have to go to higher ground, basically. The first thing is to have things packed away, just in case," Active said in a telephone interview from the local tribal council office.

"We have asked all the households to have sleeping bags, clothes, food, first-aid kits -- all the things that would be needed."

Augustine is one of Alaska's most active volcanoes, with five eruptive periods since the late 1800s, scientists said. Those events have generally started with major ash explosions that last a few days, followed by months of less powerful eruptions that produce oozing lava at the summit, they said.

[Fredfredson]

Lots of good info here including Web Cams and real time seismic.

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Augustine.php

F

[Fredfredson]

Oblique image of Augustine volcano, showing the 1986 pyroclastic flow deposits, West Island, which was created by an avalanche less than 350 years ago, and Burr Point, created by an avalanche in 1883.

Picture Date: December 21, 2005
Image Creator: Nye, C.

Image courtesy of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute.
Please cite the photographer and the University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute when using this image.

[Fredfredson]

It's erupting.

Augustine portion of weekly Updates and periodic Information Releases.
Wednesday, January 11, 2006 5:50 AM AKST
Current Level of Concern Color Code: RED
Previous Level of Concern Color Code: ORANGE

At 4:44 a.m. (AST) this morning, AVO began recording seismic signals interpreted as explosions at the summit of Augustine Volcano that likely mark the onset of an eruption. The current activity may be emitting ash, steam, and volcanic gases.

If the volcano follows a pattern similar to the 1976 and 1986 eruptions, we would expect a further intensification of seismic activity prior to a larger explosive event. It is also possible that an explosive eruption could occur with little or no warning.

[Fredfredson]

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/augustine.php

WWAK71 PAFC 111507 ANCNPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

605 AM AST WED JAN 11 2006

AKZ171-111800-

KODIAK ISLAND-INCLUDING ... KODIAK CITY

605 AM AST WED JAN 11 2006

...ASHFALL ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

AT THIS TIME THE ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY SHOWS RECENT SEISMIC ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MT AUGUSTINE AND IS CONTINUING
TO MONITOR THIS EVENT.

THE ASH CLOUD HAS BEEN DETECTED TO 28000 FT. THE CLOUD APPEARS TO HAVE LOW CONCENTRATIONS OF ASH.

AREAS TO BE AFFECTED IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS WILL BE WILLIAMSPORT AND INISKIN.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN AT HOME OR INDOORS AND REDUCE OUTSIDE
ACTIVITY. KEEP WINDOWS AND DOORS CLOSED. DO NOT EXERCISE OUTDOORS. DO NOT BURN WOOD IN STOVES OR FIREPLACES IF THE WOOD HAS VOLCANIC ASH ON IT.

THE NEXT STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT WILL BE ISSUED AS DETAILS BECOME
AVAILABLE.

RNW JAN 06

[potter]

Hey fred, do you know why they are warning people not to burn wood with volcanic ash on it?

[Fredfredson]

I was wondering about that as well.

Maybe they don't want the ash being sent up into the chimney or into the room with the smoke.

I'll see if I can find something about that.

F

[Connie]

Could it possibly residual gas left in the ash?
I think .....but am no expert...just guessing here...

[Connie]

Natural Disasters > Volcanoes >

Key Facts About Protecting Yourself After a Volcanic Eruption

ou can do many things to protect yourself and your family after a volcanic eruption:

* Pay attention to warnings, and obey instructions from local authorities. For example, stay indoors until local health officials tell you it is safe to go outside.
* Listen to local news updates for information about air quality, drinking water, and roads.
* Turn off all heating and air conditioning units and fans, and close windows, doors, and fireplace and woodstove dampers to help keep ash and gases from getting into your house.
* Exposure to ash can harm your health, particularly the respiratory (breathing) tract. To protect yourself while you are outdoors or while you are cleaning up ash that has gotten indoors, use an N-95 disposable respirator (also known as an “air purifying respirator”). N-95 respirators can be purchased at businesses such as hardware stores. It is important to follow directions for proper use of this respirator. For more information, see NIOSH-Approved Disposable Particulate Respirators (Filtering Facepieces). If you don’t have an N-95 respirator, you can protect yourself by using a nuisance dust mask as a last resort, but you should stay outdoors for only short periods while dust is falling. Nuisance dust masks can provide comfort and relief from exposure to relatively non-hazardous contaminants such as pollen, but they do not offer as much protection as an N-95 respirator.
* Stay away from ashfall areas, if possible. Avoid contact with ash as much as you can. Keep your skin covered to avoid irritation from contact with ash.
* Wear goggles to protect your eyes from ash.
* Do not travel unless you have to. Driving in ash is hazardous to your health and your car. Driving will stir up more ash that can clog engines and stall vehicles.
* Replace disposable furnace filters or clean permanent furnace filters frequently.
* If your drinking water has ash in it, use another source of drinking water, such as purchased bottled water, until your water can be tested.
* Clear roofs of ash. Ash is very heavy and can cause buildings to collapse. Be very cautious when working on a roof. Ash can be slippery and make it easy to fall. Information about injuries and mass trauma events can be found in Injuries and Mass Trauma Events: Information for the Public.
From the CDC

I don't think this answers the question...but just in case you wanted to know what to do after an eruption

[potter]

Originally Posted by Fredfredson

I was wondering about that as well.

Maybe they don't want the ash being sent up into the chimney or into the room with the smoke.

I'll see if I can find something about that.

F

Ash is a component in pottery glazes. I'm wondering it it may be acidic and thus harmful to chimneys.

[Fredfredson]

Mount Augustine Volcano in Alaska erupts
By Dan Joling

The Associated Press

PREV of NEXT

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...volcano11.html

LAURENT DICK / AP

A photo taken Jan. 4 shows a plume of steam bellowing from Mount Augustine Volcano. It erupted early today, sending an ash plume an estimated 30,000 feet into the sky.


Related

Alaska Volcano Observatory Augustine Volcano cam

ANCHORAGE — Mount Augustine Volcano erupted early today, sending an ash plume an estimated 30,000 feet into the Alaska sky.

A pair of explosions at 4:44 a.m indicated the volcano probably had erupted, said geologist Jennifer Adleman of the Alaska Volcano Observatory said.

Residents of Clam Gulch on the Kenai Peninsula confirmed the eruption and reported seeing ash, Adleman said.

"I don't know if they're seeing it on the ground or in the air," Adleman said.

The observatory after sunrise at 10:03 a.m. planned to make observation flights to get more information about the types of gases emitted from the volcano, Adleman said.

The plume was expected to head north and east.

A duty officer at the Federal Aviation Administration operation, who would not give his name, said he had not seen any new restrictions on flights as of 7 a.m.

"It looks like the ash cloud is likely to remain east of Anchorage," he said. "At this time, I have not seen any impact," he said.

The 4,134-foot volcano about 180 miles southwest of Anchorage last erupted in 1986. Ash from a 7-mile-high column drifted over Anchorage and kept flights out of the skies over Cook Inlet.

The explosions, with magnitude 2.6 seismic activity, occurred at 4:44 a.m. Alaska Standard Time, and the observatory upgraded the level of concern from orange to red, meaning a significant eruption was occurring or an explosive eruption was expected at any time.




About eight hours earlier, at 9:05 p.m., the observatory had upgraded the level of concern from yellow, or restless, to orange, meaning an eruption could occur at any time.

For the previous six hours, the observatory had detected that "markedly" increased earthquake activity.

The observatory has a Web cam stationed at the mountain.

[Fredfredson]

Some more background info:

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Augustine.php

Augustine Observations and Background, Interpretations and Hazards: January 10, 2006

Observations and Background:
Rates of earthquake occurrence increased slowly from an average rate of 1 to 2 per day in early May, to 3 to 4 per day in October and 15 per day in mid-December. These earthquakes are occurring directly beneath the mountain's summit at depths close to sea level. The largest event located to date is a magnitude 1.2. Concurrent with this increase, we have also detected a small uplift of the volcano using Global Positioning Systems (GPS) instruments permanently installed on the mountain. The total swelling to date is approximately 2 inches (5 cm). In early and mid December, a number of small steam explosions were recorded by seismic instruments on the volcano. Views of the summit following these explosions revealed new steaming cracks and localized deposits of debris. In addition, airborne gas measurements and thermal imaging measurements have shown an increase in the output of volcanic gas and heat at the summit of the volcano. The highest temperature recorded, on January 4, was 390 C (750 F). AVO interprets these changes as a sign that new magma is accumulating beneath the volcano's summit. Based on an analysis of past and current earthquake locations, GPS, gas, and heat data, this new magma may have risen to sea level or higher.

In response to this activity, AVO has deployed additional seismometers, GPS receivers, an infrasound sensor, and time lapse cameras on the flanks of the volcano, and established a web-based camera system. Further deployment of additional monitoring equipment is ongoing. We plan continued visual and infrared surveillance of the volcano's summit and frequent measurements of gas output.

The most recent eruptions of Augustine were characterized by an initial explosive phase lasting from 4 to 14 days. The explosive phase produces large ash plumes, that depending upon the prevailing winds and height of the eruptive column, can be carried hundreds to thousands of miles. Most communities in south-central Alaska experienced some ash fall with accumulations of several millimeters during both the 1976 and 1986 eruptions (Anchorage received 0.12 inches (3 mm) in 1976 and less than 0.04 inches (1 mm) in 1986; Homer received about 0.2 inches (5 mm) in 1976 and 1986). During the explosive phase of the eruption, many portions of Augustine Island are also overrun by pyroclastic flows (fast flowing mixtures of hot volcanic gasses, steam, rock and ash) and mud flows (fast moving mixtures of volcanic rock, ash and water). The explosive phase is generally followed by the extrusion of a lava dome which is generally accompanied by smaller explosions and pyroclastic flows. Communities in south-central Alaska may again experience minor ash fall during these later phases of the eruption.

Interpretation and Hazards:

Based on our current understanding of Augustine's past eruptions and our analysis of the current episode of unrest, AVO considers the following future scenarios as possible:

1) Failed Eruption: No eruption occurs as magma does not reach the surface. Earthquake activity, ground deformation, gas output, and steaming slowly decrease over several weeks or months.
2) Eruption similar to those of 1976 and 1986: Unrest continues to escalate culminating in an eruption that is similar to those that occurred in 1976 and 1986. An eruption such as this would likely spread volcanic ash throughout and perhaps beyond Cook Inlet depending upon the prevailing winds. Much of Augustine Island would be inundated by pyroclastic flows, mud flows, ash fall, and ballistic showers.
3) Larger Explosive Eruption: A significantly larger eruption could occur, perhaps similar to eruptions that are thought to have taken place prehistorically. Such an eruption might involve the production of larger ash plumes, significant modification of the island's summit, and large pyroclastic flows and mud flows on the island.
4) Flank Collapse: The intruding magma or other processes could destabilize a portion of the Augustine cone that could result in a large landslide. If this landslide entered Cook Inlet, a localized tsunami could be generated. Such a landslide and tsunami were associated with the 1883 eruption of Augustine Volcano. It is also likely that a landslide of this type would be accompanied by an eruption.

Based on all available monitoring data AVO, regards scenario number two, an eruption similar to those in 1976 and 1986, as the most probable outcome at this time. At this time scenarios one, three and four are considered less likely.

AVO will continue to monitor the volcano closely. We plan to add additional instrumentation on the volcano to help us better understand the nature of this unrest. New data and observations may lead us to change our assessment. Any changes would be announced in a subsequent Information Release.