Go Back   Politics & Current Affairs Forum > Political Forums > World Events
Politics and Current Affairs The Archives | 2004 - 2005


World Events This Forum has a Political & Current Affairs/News theme. All views welcomed.

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 8th November 2009, 07:40 PM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: P & CA Server
Posts: 30,714
Default Hurricane IDA

El Salvador declares an emergency in five regions after at least 50 people die in floods caused by days of heavy rains.

More...
__________________
Bringing you the latest news
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 8th November 2009, 07:40 PM
Fox News Bot
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 11,919
Default Hurricane Ida Becomes Category 2 Storm

More...
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 8th November 2009, 10:41 PM
Fredfredson's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: North America
Posts: 22,254
Default Hurricane IDA

Louisiana put on hurricane alert

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Louisiana put on hurricane alert

Page last updated at 21:58 GMT, Sunday, 8 November 2009

Experts warn of storm surges in parts of Mexico and Cuba
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has declared a state of emergency as the US Gulf Coast are braced for the arrival of Hurricane Ida.

Forecasters says the category 2 storm is entering the Gulf of Mexico with winds of up to 100mph (160 kph).

Ida is expected to gather speed as it moves north over open water towards the US coast.

However, the National Hurricane Center said it is expected to weaken before reaching the Gulf Coast by Tuesday.

At 2100 GMT on Sunday, the centre said Ida was about 95 miles (155km) west-north-west of Cuba, moving at about 10mph (16km/h) per hour.

The storm has already lashed parts of Central America and a tropical storm warning is in place for the western tip of Cuba.

Forecasters warned that Ida could bring up to 5in (12cm) of rain to the Mexican state of Yucatan and western Cuba, as well as storm surges and "large and destructive waves".



A separate low-pressure system coupled with the tail end of Ida also caused torrential rain in El Salvador which left more than 90 people dead from floods and landslides.

"Ida is expected to begin losing tropical characteristics on Tuesday as it nears the Gulf Coast but it could reach the coast as a tropical cyclone," the hurricane centre said.

A hurricane watch is in effect from south-east Louisiana to the Florida panhandle, meaning hurricane conditions are possible in the next day and a half.

The state of emergency declaration is a precaution that frees up state resources. The National Guard and state agencies have been put on high alert.

New Orleans is not included in the watch area.

Last year Hurricane Gustav caused an estimated two million people to flee inland from the Louisiana coast.
__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 8th November 2009, 10:45 PM
Fredfredson's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: North America
Posts: 22,254
Default



000
WTNT41 KNHC 082048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF IDA HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KT...WITH
SFMR ESTIMATES OF 80-85 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS 85 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO AND CUBA
SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT IDA IS BEING AFFECTED BY
ONGOING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/9. IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE MODELS FORECAST LANDFALLS ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
LANDFALL. THE HWRF IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH A LANDFALL IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE UKMET IS NOTABLE SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LIES NEAR THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE MODEL SPREAD GETS
VERY LARGE DUE TO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW TRACK
CALLS FOR A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION...BUT THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE HURRICANE MAY BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE NEXT
6-12 HR. AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR.
WHILE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE IDA MAKES
LANDFALL...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETELY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST IDA TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS IDA AS A WEAKENING HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL...THEN FORECASTS EXTRATROPICAL TO FINISH AFTER LANDFALL.
IN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.

THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REQUIRES
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IDA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE
LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY
RAINS...AND STORM SURGES TO THAT AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA....POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE BEING
HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF
COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.2N 86.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 26.7N 88.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 29.2N 87.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.7N 86.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 30.0N 79.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 8th November 2009, 10:51 PM
Fredfredson's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: North America
Posts: 22,254
Default



__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)  
Old 9th November 2009, 05:32 AM
Francois Cellier's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: 3rd planet of Sol
Age: 62
Posts: 15,841
Default Oil cos shut output in Gulf due to hurricane

From Reuters

Oil cos shut output in Gulf due to hurricane

* BP, Chevron, Marathon shut production in Gulf of Mexico
* Louisiana Offshore Oil Port stops tanker offloading
* Chevron, Anadarko evacuating workers, no output shut
* Exxon preparing for possible shutdowns (Adds Chevron output shut)


By Erwin Seba and Bruce Nichols

Sun Nov 8, 2009 9:21pm EST


HOUSTON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - U.S. oil companies were shutting production on Sunday as they evacuated workers from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ida, which is forecast to roar across the offshore oil patch Monday before making landfall on Tuesday.

BP Plc (BP.L), one the Gulf's largest oil producers, said on Sunday some of its production was shut and nonessential workers were evacuated from Ida's forecast path. The company does not disclose amounts of shut production.

Chevron Corp (CVX.N) said it had also shut some production.

Marathon Oil Corp (MRO.N) had shut its Ewing Bank production platform after evacuating workers, a spokeswoman said on Sunday. The Ewing Bank platform can produce 11,700 barrels of oil and 10.5 million cubic feet of natural gas a day.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, which takes in an average of 1 million barrels of foreign crude from cargo ships daily, stopped offloading tankers shortly after noon CST Sunday (1800 GMT) due to deteriorating sea conditions, according to a spokeswoman.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC.N) said workers were being evacuated from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, but no oil production was shut in.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) said it preparing for possible shutdowns ahead of heavy weather at offshore and onshore Gulf of Mexico locations including its Mobile Bay, Alabama, natural gas field.

Oil companies began lifting workers off of platforms in the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, said a helicopter company executive.

"We've had a very busy day," said Jim Shugart, executive vice president of marketing for ERA Helicopters of Lake Charles, Louisiana.

"We expect tomorrow to be pretty busy if the weather gives us a shot to complete what we're doing," Shugart said. "We started Saturday. They've been flying all day. Can't put a number on it. I would think like 30 or 40 helicopters."

Hurricane Ida was packing 100 mile-per-hour (161 kph) winds on Sunday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, which rated it a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

Ida is forecast to strike the U.S. Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida sometime Tuesday morning, the Hurricane Center said.

ConocoPhillips (COP.N) said operations in the Gulf of Mexico were continuing as normal on Sunday while the company monitors the storm's progress.

The LOOP continues to supply U.S. Gulf Coast refineries from tens of millions of barrels of oil stored onshore despite the halt in tanker offloading, said LOOP spokeswoman Barb Hestermann.

The LOOP also continues receiving via pipeline 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in oil from the Mars and Thunder Horse production platforms in the Gulf, Hestermann said.

"We may not be offloading tankers Monday and Tuesday as well," she said.

The Gulf of Mexico accounts for 25 percent of U.S. oil production and about 15 percent of national natural gas output. according to the U.S. government.
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
  #7 (permalink)  
Old 9th November 2009, 05:53 AM
Fredfredson's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: North America
Posts: 22,254
Default

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 21


Statement as of 9:00 PM CST on November 08, 2009


the satellite appearance of Ida has changed very little since the
aircraft departed the hurricane just before 0000 UTC. During the
last couple of passes through the center the aircraft measured a
maximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 108 kt and a SFMR surface wind
of 84 kt. These data support an intensity of 90 kt. Another Air
Force plane is scheduled to reach Ida around 0600 UTC.

The last few aircraft fixes provide a fairly confident initial
motion of 345/12...a little faster than before. Ida is forecast to
continue moving northward between a mid/upper-level trough over the
western Gulf Mexico and a mid/upper-level ridge over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and the northern Caribbean Sea. The track models
appear to be in a little better agreement on a north-northwestward
to northward track during the next 24-36 hours. The 12z runs of
the ECMWF and UKMET are a little west of the remainder of the
guidance and show a track near extreme southeastern Louisiana.
During the first 24-36 hours...the new official forecast is near
the model consensus and the previous track...but is a little
faster. After landfall along the northern Gulf Coast...the models
turn Ida eastward then southeastward and the NHC forecast follows
suit...but does not show as sharp a southeastward turn as some of
the guidance indicates. The Air Force also flew a surveillance
mission around and north of the hurricane this afternoon and that
data should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models.

Ida is forecast to traverse cooler waters...and move into a
cooler airmass and increasing shear during the next 24-36 hours.
As the cyclone approaches the northern Gulf Coast it will also
likely begin extratropical transition. However...it is becoming
more likely that Ida will retain its tropical characteristics
through landfall. The intensity guidance forecasts gradual
weakening and all show Ida around hurricane strength at landfall.
The official forecast is in line with the guidance and keeps the
cyclone a hurricane when it reaches the coast. This has required
the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the northern
Gulf Coast.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 09/0300z 23.7n 86.7w 90 kt
12hr VT 09/1200z 25.8n 87.5w 85 kt
24hr VT 10/0000z 28.5n 87.7w 75 kt
36hr VT 10/1200z 30.5n 87.1w 65 kt...inland
48hr VT 11/0000z 31.2n 85.8w 40 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 12/0000z 30.5n 82.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 13/0000z...dissipated


$$
forecaster Brown
__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)  
Old 9th November 2009, 05:55 AM
Fredfredson's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: North America
Posts: 22,254
Default

Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 9:00 PM CST on November 08, 2009


...Ida heading north-northwestward....Hurricane Warning issued
for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast...

At 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for
the northern Gulf Coast from Pascagoula Mississippi eastward to
Indian Pass Florida. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.


At 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane
Watch are in effect for the northern Gulf Coast from Grand Isle
Louisiana eastward to west of Pascagoula Mississippi...including
New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area within 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.


At 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the northern Gulf Coast from east of Indian Pass to Aucilla
river Florida.


At 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...the government of Cuba has discontinued
all watches and warnings for Cuba.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


At 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 23.7 north...longitude 86.7 west or about 400 miles...
645 km...south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.


Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A
turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed are expected
during the next 24 hours...followed by a turn toward the northeast
on Monday night. On the forecast track...Ida is expected to cross
the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday...and approach the northern
Gulf Coast Monday night or early Tuesday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ida is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Gradual weakening is forecast...but Ida is expected to remain a
hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.


Ida is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3
inches over portions of western Cuba...with isolated maximum storm
total amounts of 8 inches possible.

Rains will be increasing well in advance of Ida across the central
and eastern Gulf Coast...but will become steadier and heavier by
Monday into Tuesday. Total storm accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
with isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches will be possible
through Tuesday from the central and eastern Gulf Coast northward
into the eastern portions of the Tennessee Valley and the southern
Appalachians.


A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
4 to 6 feet above ground level along the coast near and to the
east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

...Summary of 900 PM CST information...
location...23.7n 86.7w
maximum sustained winds...105 mph
present movement...north-northwest or 345 degrees at 14 mph
minimum central pressure...979 mb


an intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1200 am CST followed by the next complete advisory at 300
am CST.


$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)  
Old 9th November 2009, 01:40 PM
Fredfredson's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: North America
Posts: 22,254
Default

Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:17 PM GMT on November 08, 2009


Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.

The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.


Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.


Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Links to follow:

U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar

Jeff Masters
__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
  #10 (permalink)  
Old 9th November 2009, 01:42 PM
Fredfredson's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: North America
Posts: 22,254
Default

Hurricane Ida weakens, but Gulf still on warning

By BECKY BOHRER (AP) – 1 hour ago

The Associated Press: Hurricane Ida weakens, but Gulf still on warning

NEW ORLEANS — Hurricane Ida was weakening early Monday as it headed for the Gulf Coast but could still pack hurricane-strength winds and storm surges when it hits the shore overnight.

Despite warnings extending more than 200 miles across several states, residents seemed to take the first Atlantic hurricane to target the U.S. this season in stride.

There were no immediate plans for mandatory evacuations.

"Even though we're telling everybody to be prepared, my gut tells me it probably won't be that bad," said Steve Arndt, director of Bay Point Marina Co. in Panama City, Fla.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said top sustained winds from the Category 1 hurricane had decreased to near 80 mph around 7:00 a.m. EST from about 90 mph earlier Monday.

Hurricane warnings remained in effect from Pascagoula, Miss., east to Indian Pass, Fla. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect across neighboring areas including New Orleans. Forecasters said Ida could make landfall Monday night or early Tuesday.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency as a precaution, and the National Guard was on high alert if assistance was needed.

Earlier, heavy rain in Ida's wake triggered flooding and landslides in El Salvador that killed 124 people. One mudslide covered the town of Verapaz, about 30 miles outside the capital, San Salvador, before sawn Sunday.

Early Monday, Ida was located about 235 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving north-northwest near 16 mph.

The latest storm track projection from the National Hurricane Center showed Ida brushing near Louisiana and Mississippi, then making landfall near Alabama before continuing across north Florida.

Officials were encouraging residents to prepare for potential gusts of 60 mph by removing any tree limbs that could damage their homes and securing or bringing in any trash cans, grills, potted plants or patio furniture.

Residents of Pensacola Beach and nearby Perdido Key were encouraged to leave, and school was canceled in the area Monday and Tuesday. Some schools around New Orleans also canceled classes for Monday.

Nearly 1,400 Louisiana residents are still living in federally issued trailers and mobile homes after hurricanes Katrina and Rita; nearly 360 units remained in Mississippi.

"FEMA stresses that those in temporary (housing) units should not take chances," Federal Emergency Management Agency spokesman Andrew Thomas said. "Leave the unit behind and evacuate to a permanent structure that will better withstand tropical weather systems and the associated winds."

Mississippi authorities warned residents to be vigilant. Authorities were monitoring conditions to see whether any evacuations of lower-lying areas or school closures would be necessary.

"It is likely we will at least be hit with strong winds and some flooding in our coastal counties," said Jeff Rent, a spokesman for the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency. Officials "do not want anybody to be caught off guard."

Mississippi Emergency Management Agency Director Mike Womack said forecasts called for tides of 4-7 feet above normal and rainfall totals of 5-7 inches within 24 hours, which could mean flooding along the coasts and along rivers.

Alabama emergency management officials did not immediately respond to phone messages.

In the Florida Panhandle, residents in Bay County and Panama City were being advised to secure boats and prepare for storm surges that could reach 2-3 feet. Heavy rain, wind and possible flooding was also expected.

"You really don't know until it gets close how you're going to be affected by it," said Brad Monroe, Bay County's deputy chief of emergency services.

Ida wasn't expected to pack the wallop seen in 2008 when hurricanes Gustav and Ike pelted the Gulf Coast back-to-back. There have been nine named storms this season, which ends Dec. 1. Ida is only the third hurricane to form, and neither of the others threatened land.

Earlier Sunday, Ida's wind and rain whipped palm trees in the Mexican resort city of Cancun. Fishermen tied their boats down, though tourists seemed to regard it as a minor setback.

"It's not what we expected," said Kathleen Weisser, a nurse from Fernley, Nev. "We wanted sun. Instead we have liquid sunshine."

Associated Press writers Suzette Laboy in Miami and Catherine E. Shoichet in Cancun contributed to this story.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
__________________
"Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it."-- Mark Twain

"Inter arma silent Musae"--when the weapons speak, the muses fall silent.

An't nanum hearm deth, doth hwaet ye willath.

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished
unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. -Voltaire

Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Authoritarian/Libertarian: -4.36
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Tags
hurricane, ida


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Big Island under hurricane watch Fredfredson World Events 2 15th August 2007 12:48 AM
Hurricane center chief issues final warning Fredfredson Peak Oil, Economics & The Environment 0 4th January 2007 09:39 PM
Top Hurricane Expert Says Officials Threatened His Job Over Pre-Katrina Warnings Tom Joad US Politics Forum 1 29th August 2006 07:22 AM
Floridians prep for Hurricane season. Fredfredson General Chat 16 13th July 2006 03:03 PM
As Hurricane Season Looms, States Aim to Scare Fredfredson US Politics Forum 2 1st June 2006 02:51 AM


All times are GMT. The time now is 10:19 AM.



POLITICS & CURRENT AFFAIRS WEBRING: Political Blog

NETWORK OF SITES: Bath Rock Media Limited | Online Casino | Online Slots Guide | Politics and Current Affairs

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2010, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.3.0
Politics & Current Affairs © Bath Rock Media Limited 2003 - 2010